2024: The Evolving Landscape of Military Manpower: Evaluating the Rise of AI in Possible Futures

This research paper was published at KDU International Research Conference 2024.

IGMKT Ihagama1#, KERL Fernando2

IGMKT Ihagama1#, KERL Fernando2

1Foresight Envoy, Sri Lanka 2Foresight Envoy, Sri Lanka

# <kavithathathsarani@gmail.com>

Abstract— Many scholars predict the futuristic application of AI in the military and even robot armies and wars. Thus, these lack an explanation of ‘why’. Therefore, to answer this question via academic foundations, this paper investigates the correlation between military manpower and AI in Futures Studies. Thus, Possible Futures will be focused on investigating the complex correlation between futuristic demographic challenges and military manpower.

The problem of this study is to answer ‘why will the military manpower of future armies shift from humans to robots?’. The methodology adopted in this task will be the future studies research methodology of Six Pillars approach and the research tool of back-casting. Further, case studies of the three largest militaries, China, India, and the United States (US) will be considered in data collection and demographic trends trends including population growth rate, population median age, total fertility rate as well as birth rate, and its impact on military recruitment and force composition will be evaluated as research variables. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the paradigm shift in military manpower from the traditional recruitment of humans towards the integration of robot soldiers in the Possible Futures with a special focus on analyzing the potentiality of AI to address recruitment challenges arising from demographic shifts.

Keywords— Possible Futures, Military Manpower, AI, Demography

I. INTRODUCTION

This research is founded on Possible Futures under the academic discipline of Futures Studies to evaluate the rise of AI in military manpower in Possible Futures. Futures Studies is the study of possible, probable and preferred futures and the world views and myths that underlie them. (Inayatulla, 2024). Thereby, in order to narrate the correlation between military manpower and use of AI in Possible Futures, demography is considered as the variable.

Demographic trends have a significant influence on military forces. As of 2022, the human population had surpassed 8 billion, notably, two thirds of this population resides in regions with fertility rates that have fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. These trends paint a stark picture of the ongoing demographic shifts reshaping the world (United Nations, 2023). Therefore understanding demographic trends is crucial since population estimates and future projections allow governments to predict demographic trends and incorporate information received into planning and development policy (United Nations, 2019). classically, military strength was primarily determined by the size of an army, measured by the number of soldiers. However, with the industrial revolution and the information age, the quality of equipment and access to information have emerged as crucial factors in determining effectiveness (Libicki et al., 2011). The three factors; manpower, money and technical expertise have an interconnected relationship in building a strong military. Manpower translates to the youth population of a state and according to Azar Gat the ideal method to measure the military strength of a ‘great powers military power is provided by the product of a nation's GDP with the square of the third root of its per capita’. Since the world war Ⅱ, the integration of technology warfare has significantly increased the demand for personnel with expertise in software, systems integration, and management skills. While technical expertise is essential, demographic factors alone cannot determine the availability of these resources and skills. socioeconomic factors, particularly access to education, also play a crucial role (Libicki et al., 2011).

This paper examines the national capabilities of the three largest militaries in the world; China, India, and the United States. As of 2024, China had the largest military forces in the world by active duty military personnel (Dyvik, 2024). These countries have their own diverse range of demographic profiles therefore enabling a comprehensive analysis of how population growth influences military recruitment strategies and overall force composition. Furthermore this study explores the evolving role of technology in the military arena. In response to the challenges arising from demographic shifts, a growing trend towards the utilization of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is evident. The research addresses the problem of how demographics influence military strength and how technology influences this shift?

II. METHODOLOGY

The problem of this research is ‘why will the military manpower of future armies shift from humans to robots?’ In answering the research problem, the research framework of this paper is Futures Studies research methodology of Six Pillars approach and moreover, the research tool of back-casting.

A.Six Pillars Approach

This includes six steps, namely: (1) Mapping: which is used to map or plan the futures. In this research, mapping the research area. (2) Anticipating: answering the ‘why’ question whether there will be a paradigm shift of human military manpower to robot soldiers? (3) Timing: This involves the big history of the research area along with the present and forecasting the futures timing. In this, the demographic statistics will be utilized. (4) Deepening: This involves deciding the metaphors. In this paper, the deciding variable of demographic trends. (5) Creating alternatives or scenario planning: This mainly deals with evaluating the impact of the variable in the research problem. (6) Transforming the future: deals with the research outcomes, results and recommendations.

B. Back-casting

Most importantly, the Futures Studies research tool of back-casting is considered in this study. Back-casting means, in determining the patterns to the futures, how to create different futures or how to envision the future and how to go from the future to the present.

III. MAPPING

Many scholars predict the futuristic application of AI in the military and even of robot armies and wars. Thus, these lack an explanation of ‘why’. Therefore, in order to answer this question via academic foundations, this paper attempts to investigate the correlation between military manpower and AI in Futures Studies.

According to Klare, the modern warfare is on the verge of major transition, featured by the integration of robotics, the author predicts a future battlefield characterized with human soldiers progressively superseded by unmanned vehicles and AI innovations. This possible paradigm shift is emphasized by prominent figures within the military-industrial complex. For instance, Robert Work, a former Deputy Secretary of Defense, aspires positioning ‘wolf packs’ composed of autonomous submarines and surface vessels against adversaries. The long-term strategic plan articulated by the US Army calls for the deployment of robotic systems. This vision of a robotic revolution is shared by other major powers in the world including China and Russia (Klare,2019).

The article Building a Future: Integrated Human-Machine Military Organization by Mick Ryan argues that future warfare will be characterized by humans and machinery teams. According to military leaders like Gill Pratt the developments in AI and Robotics are believed to produce a ‘Cambrian Explosion’ of new robotic capabilities which will result in changing the nature of war, with incorporation of robotics from minor level military operations to lethal attacks. The author states that human-machine teaming has the advantage of reducing casualties. The absence of human consciousness would not hinder the progress of machines in decision making since they are equipped with succumbing to human emotions. However ethical implications of autonomous robots raise concern although some argue machines have the capacity to be more humane than human soldiers. Despite these potential benefits, algorithmic bias and a lack of human oversight could lead to dangerous consequences (Ryan, 2017).

The landscape of warfare is open for a transformation led by integration of robots and AI. While this future can deliver increased efficiency and reduced casualties, significant gaps exist in the understanding of the ethical implications of autonomous weapons systems and for the potential for algorithmic bias to increase persisting geopolitical tensions. Therefore further research on ‘Cambrian Explosion’ of robotic capabilities will create accountable innovation, rather than exacerbation of global conflict.

IV. ANTICIPATING

Military technological advancements have enabled militaries to adopt revolutionary strategies in warfare, particularly the integration of AI. Numerous factors justify the need of using this technology in combat such as, reducing the losses of armed forces, AI technology facilitates accuracy and precision in military operations and the proliferation of advanced weaponry by powerful nations within the ongoing arms race has demonstrably led to a significant increase in battlefield casualties. In response, the deployment of combat autonomous militaries presents a potential solution. Highlighting the core objective of this approach in reduction of human fatalities by delegating combat tasks to AI-powered systems.

Demographic change is a slow but a powerful change. The demographic component of national power is determined by the working-age population. Demography has an influence on manpower, national income and expenditures, and human capital consequently these factors determine the ability of a nation to carry out broad missions. One of the most important determinants of population size is births, while predicting birth rates with perfect accuracy remains a challenge, death rates are relatively predictable. However demographics are not always a decisive factor in military strength, particularly in scenarios like nuclear deterrence or the determination of armed forces (Libicki, 2011). The battle of Thermopylae in 480 BC is a case in point. Despite being vastly outnumbered by the Persian army (approximately 7000 Greeks against an estimated Persian force of hundreds of thousands), the Spartan resistance at Thermopylae significantly impeded the Persian advance (Mukherjee, n.d.). The historical event demonstrates that military strength is not solely determined by troop numbers. Effective strategies and intangible factors, such as troop morale and leadership, can also play a crucial role.

One of the most significant demographic factors with potential implications for armed forces recruitment is the population's aging, or graying. This trend is evident in the United States and other industrialized nations, where declining birth rates and increasing life spans lead to a larger proportion of the population exceeding the traditional retirement age. Other noteworthy demographic trends include urbanization, high birth rates in developing

countries, and, in some regions, a concerning bias towards prevention or survival of female children. The shortage of Military-aged personnel combined with advancements in combat technology creates the perfect platform for a reduction in youth recruitment. This shift would necessitate a greater reliance on autonomous weapons systems, which in turn would require more experienced and mature military personnel with strong technical expertise (Quester, 2005).

A demographic shift is on the horizon. India's working-age population is projected to surpass Chinas by 2030. Currently, China boasts a working-age population nearly five times the size of the United States’. However, by 2050, that gap is expected to narrow, with China's working-age population only being three times larger than the US's. This trend is mirrored when comparing India and the US. Today India's working-age population is three times larger than the US's but by 2050, that number is projected to jump to five times larger (Quester, 2005).

By examining the demographic shifts in China, India and the US, valuable insights could be gained regarding the potential future of global military power. As working-age populations decline in developed nations like the US, the ability to maintain large, conventional militaries may become increasingly challenging. This scenario could give momentum to a shift towards more autonomous weapons systems and AI technology to compensate for manpower limitations. Contrarily, countries like India with an increasingly growing working-age population might prioritize conventional military expansion. The evolving nature of warfare and the utilization of AI in future military operations can be anticipated by analyzing these trends.

V. TIMING & DEEPENING

A recurrent problem for the most formidable military in the world is population. The pool of eligible recruits could become smaller due to declining birth rates and aging populations, which could impair their military prowess. This section, Timing & Deepening, will examine how AI is being used by China, India, and the US to handle the problems posed by their own demographic realities.

A. China

For centuries, China held the distinction of being the world's most populous country. However, due to concerns about overpopulation, the Chinese government implemented population control measures, including the 'later,longer,fewer’ campaign and the One-Child Policy. as a consequence, China's population began to decline in 2022 and is experiencing an accelerated rate of population aging (China Power, 2023). Future population reallocation will primarily be featured by movement between urban areas instead of from rural to urban areas which will result in slower growth for cities overall, moreover persisting societal trends incline more towards delayed marriages and high individuality which has led to decline in family size recently according to the population census reveals more than 57% of population resides in households with two or fewer individuals and due to smaller workforce economic growth is predicted to slow down (EIU, 2024).

One of the significant factors that drive to integrate AI technology into the military is due to manpower shortage and to build a more ‘intelligent’ force.

China regards the development of AI technology as a national priority; it has launched national campaigns to allocate resources in the public and private sectors; moreover other strategies include educational programs such as ‘going out’ strategy and military-civil fusion which enables rapid transfer of progress from the private sector to military context. The defense white paper emphasizes the significance of AI for the People's Liberation Army (PLA) by regarding ‘the integrated development of military intelligentization’ as a part of a characteristically Chinese way to strengthen the Military. The introduction of AI to modern battlefields will resolve China's declining manpower issue and have the potential to achieve its goal to become a world-class military (Zhang, 2020).

B. India

In a historic shift, India exceeded the population of China in 2023 to become the world's most populous nation. with a population surpassing 1.4 billion, India consists of more people than all of Europe. India's population is relatively young, with a median age of 28.4 years. This demographic benefit, which is referred to as the "demographic dividend," offers the possibility of substantial economic expansion. However, a number of variables, such as the percentage of the working-age population in relation to the overall population, will determine how this growing population affects India's GDP. According to projections, this percentage will rise above 65% by 2031. It is expected that this demographic dividend will then decline (Rathore, 2024).

The commercialization of the Indian economy, development of infrastructure and implementation of family planning programs, have collectively exerted a significant influence on traditional Indian family structures. Furthermore, shifting societal norms have resulted in reducing fertility rates and more inclination towards smaller family units (Rathore, 2024).

The integration of AI technology into the Indian military holds promise for addressing challenges arising from shifting demographic trends. While India consists of a large pool of potential recruits, concerns exist regarding skill gaps and technical expertise (World Bank Group, 2007). AI can bridge this gap by utilizing autonomous systems and increasing efficiency. Furthermore, India's aspirations to develop its military and become a major power could be possible with AI integration hence it has the potential to boost battlefield capabilities and bridge the gap between India and more advanced militaries.

C. United States

As one of the powerful nations in the world the US fertility rate has decreased over the years and it range over from just 2 children per woman. However, the rate has stabilized at

this level. It is predicted the working-age population will experience a modest increase due to its replacement birth rates and high levels of mostly legal immigration. However, these factors may not be enough to offset the long-term demographic trends. projections suggest that the United States’ demographic power will experience a significant decline by 2050 (Libicki, 2011).

According to projections from the US Census Bureau, the number of deaths in the US is expected to surpass the number of births by 2028. As Beth Jaroaz notes, by 2100, the population will see a significant shift towards an older age demographic, with adults aged 65 and over outnumbering children, who will constitute a mere 16% of the population (Elliot, 2024). During the American Civil War, the Union Army heavily relied on recent immigrants, specifically Irish and Germans, for enlistment. These immigrants served in segregated regiments composed entirely of their own ethnicity, and many enlisted before acquiring American Citizenship, while the US historically granted expedited access to citizenship and legal immigrant status, this practice persists in some form even today (Quester, 2005).

Beyond demographic considerations, political factors have significantly influenced the inclination towards incorporating AI technology into the military. The geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China , particularly China's national focus on AI innovation, has spurred significant advancements. Historically, the US has maintained military superiority. However, these advancements within the People's Liberation Army (PLA) pose a potential threat to the US world-class military status. This ongoing competition to control AI dominance will likely shape the future global balance of power (Glonek,2024).

V. CREATING ALTERNATIVES’

The findings of the research suggests a stark correlation between demographics and military manpower. as the graying of population and its decline conventional recruitment methods fall short to address these challenges emerging due to evolving demographic trends. This section explores alternative approaches to address potential future manpower limitations in militaries, without heavily relying on AI powered solutions.

One of the key findings that was able to draw out from the research was demographics have a significant influence on military manpower. An increasingly growing working-age population enables easier recruitment, conversely a declining one necessitates alternative solutions.

An examination of the demographics of China and the US reveals a shared challenge: Based on projections, both nations are to experience declining populations with an increasing growth in elderly population. beyond their geopolitical rivalry this demographic trend is likely to incentivize the integration of technology to address these manpower shortages. However, alternative approaches to this potential future exist. redefining military roles and service models will enable shorter enlistments combined with a larger reserve force that might maintain a readily deployable pool of personnel. In addition to this, implementation of automation for non-combat roles would allow human personnel to focus on strategic and combat-oriented roles (Libicki, 2011).

In contrast to the demographic challenges faced by China and the US, India experiences a notable advantage: a large and young population. This demographic dividend creates an environment for a flourishing economic growth, which in turn requires necessary strategies to address skill gaps and enhancement of military efficiency. Integration of AI has the potential in achieving these goals. Alternative approaches that could be implemented are focusing on upskilling and cross-training existing personnel; investing in skill development programs and building a versatile force by training military personnel in par with the evolving technology, furthermore, expanding the recruitment pool by enhancing inclusivity, widening the recruitment efforts to include women and minorities will broaden the talent pool and will result in a more innovative and effective force (Libicki, 2011).

VI. TRANSFORMING THE FUTURE

This paper has investigated the correlation between military and AI in the context of possible futures, using Future studies methodologies. The analysis focused on demographic trends of three case studies; China, India, and the US. These three countries rank as the top three largest militaries according to the demographics, Highlighting the potential influence on military recruitment strategies and force composition. The findings suggest a strong interlink between demographics and military manpower. Declining birthrates and the rise of aging populations lead to challenges in traditional recruitment methods, potentially incentivizing the integration of AI technology. However, this research also highlights the significance of exploring alternative approaches such as opting for more hybrid solutions for a more sustainable and responsible future for national security rather than solely relying on AI technology. While AI offers advantages such as increased efficiency, it also presents significant challenges, including ethical limitations and the absence of human consciousness, which is a crucial factor in many situations.

In conclusion, this paper underlines the multifaceted nature of future military manpower considerations. A balanced approach that embraces alternative solutions alongside technological integration is vital.

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ABBREVIATIONS AND SPECIFIC SYMBOLS

AI : Artificial Intelligence

US : United States

PLA : People's Liberation Army

AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY/IES

IGMKT Ihagama is a final year undergraduate of Faculty of Defence and Strategic Studies (KDU). Her academic background is complemented by research experience in policy research, gained through a previous role as a research assistant at the Center for Strategic Assessment (CSA) at KDU. Presently, she works at Foresight Envoy as the Research Officer.

KERL Fernando is a Criminal Defence Counsel and also a Visiting Lecturer in Law and International Relations. She holds MSc. in Security and Strategic Studies (KDU), LL.M in Criminal Justice Administration (OUSL), LL.B (Hons.) (KDU), E-Diploma in Human Rights (CSHR- Colombo). She is a researcher who has presented several papers at many International Symposiums, who was also awarded ‘Best Presenter’. She is the Founder/ Managing Director of Foresight Envoy which is the first organization in Sri Lanka dedicated for Future Studies and Leadership. She is APLP Fellow at East West Center, Hawaii, USA.

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